Binary logistic regression model for calculating asthma risk in Pinar del Río

Authors

  • Odalys Orraca Castillo Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Pinar del Río. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas “Dr. Ernesto Che Guevara de la Serna”. Pinar del Río
  • María Amparo León Sánchez Universidad de Pinar del Río “Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca”. Pinar del Río
  • Miladys Orraca Castillo Ministerio de Salud Pública. La Habana
  • Roberto Lardoeyt Ferrer
  • Carlos Alfredo Miló Valdés Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Pinar del Río. Hospital Pediátrico Provincial Docente “Pepe Portilla”. Pinar del Río

Keywords:

ASTHMA, RISK FACTORS, LOGISTIC REGRESSION, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS.

Abstract

Introduction: there is evidence of methodological progress towards the optimization of study designs and analytical methods in genome-environment interactions in asthma, including logistic regression models.

Objective: to determine a binary logistic regression model to identify the risk of asthma in pediatric patients.

Methods: an observational, analytical, case-control study was conducted in asthmatic patients in Pinar del Río province, Cuba, in the period 2015-2019. The sample comprised 735 cases, establishing a ratio of cases/controls of 1:2. From the genetic, infectious and environmental variables, a binary logistic regression model was completed.

Results: the correspondence between the current and predicted values of the dependent variable was statistically proven (p=0.602). Nagelkerke's R2 indicated that the predictors used explained 87% of the variability of the dependent variable. The estimated model correctly classified 94% of the cases, with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 95%. The model resulted from the use of 11 variables, of which four corresponded to family history of asthma, four to infectious variables and three to environmental variables.

Conclusions: the multivariate analysis allowed designing a model for the calculation of the probability of asthma using the tables of risks in Pinar del Río, which leads to the implementation of personalized medicine and the improvement of preventive medicine in primary health care.

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Author Biography

Odalys Orraca Castillo, Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Pinar del Río. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas “Dr. Ernesto Che Guevara de la Serna”. Pinar del Río

Especialista de Primer y Segundo Grado en Inmunología. Máster en Genética Médica y en Urgencias Médicas. Profesora Auxiliar. Hospital Pediátrico Provincial Docente "Pepe Portilla". Pinar del Río. Cuba

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Published

2021-10-30

How to Cite

1.
Orraca Castillo O, León Sánchez MA, Orraca Castillo M, Lardoeyt Ferrer R, Miló Valdés CA. Binary logistic regression model for calculating asthma risk in Pinar del Río. Rev Ciencias Médicas [Internet]. 2021 Oct. 30 [cited 2025 Sep. 12];25(5):e5301. Available from: https://revcmpinar.sld.cu/index.php/publicaciones/article/view/5301

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 5 (2021)

Section

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

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